Japan’s Crypto Policy Shift Raises Questions for the Market Ahead of Key Macro Decisions

Japan is quietly reimagining how digital assets fit into its financial system, and the timing is drawing attention. While global markets are already sensitive to upcoming macro decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Tokyo is advancing parallel reforms that touch crypto regulation, taxation, and broader liquidity conditions. Related Reading: Ex-Terra Insider Calls Do Kwon Case ‘Backwards’ In Explosive X Thread Together, these moves are forcing investors to reassess how Japan may influence crypto markets in the months ahead, not just through headlines, but also through structural changes. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) has outlined plans to shift crypto oversight away from the Payment Services Act toward the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Crypto Moves From Payments to Investment Rules Under the proposed framework, cryptocurrencies would be treated more explicitly as financial products rather than payment tools. Oversight would move under securities-style rules, aligning crypto trading closer to traditional investment markets. The FSA has emphasized stronger investor protection, particularly around token offerings. Exchanges handling initial exchange offerings would be required to provide detailed disclosures, including the identities of issuers, token distribution methods, and independent code audits. The framework mirrors elements seen in the EU’s MiCA regime and South Korea’s crypto laws, including explicit bans on insider trading and tighter controls on unregistered or overseas platforms serving Japanese users. Rather than signaling deregulation, the shift suggests Japan is standardizing its crypto space. Tax Reform Sends a Different Signal Alongside tighter oversight, Japan is preparing a significant tax reform . Crypto gains, currently taxed as miscellaneous income at rates that can reach 55%, are set to move to a flat 20% rate. This would place digital assets on similar footing with stocks and other capital assets. The proposal reflects years of pressure from investors and startups, who have argued that punitive taxation has pushed activity offshore. While the regulatory net tightens, the tax cut points toward an effort to keep capital and innovation within Japan, potentially improving long-term participation rather than encouraging short-term speculation. Macro Pressure Still Shapes Market Behavior Despite policy shifts that appear supportive on paper, market reaction has been muted. Assets such as XRP have remained range-bound even amid Japan-related developments, reflecting low volumes and liquidity fragmentation rather than enthusiasm or fear. Similarly, macro forces loom larger. The BoJ is expected to hike rates later this month, a move that has historically coincided with risk-off behavior in crypto as yen liquidity tightens. Japan is also preparing to offload over $500 billion in ETFs at a slow pace, underscoring policymakers’ caution about destabilizing markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Makes The Cut As Brazil’s Largest Private Bank Issues 2026 Guidance Japan’s crypto policy reset looks less like a catalyst and more like a backdrop. Whether it ultimately supports prices may depend less on regulation itself and more on how liquidity, rates, and risk appetite settle once key macro decisions are out of the way. Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview