In a thread on X today, January 20, Dennis Liu (@VirtualBacon0x), a general partner at Momentum 6, laid out a bold forecast for Ethereum (ETH), suggesting the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency could reach a price target of $14,000 by the end of 2025. Liu also contends that the next six months will be pivotal, highlighting ETH’s potential to “dominate the market” through June. “Ethereum is about to dominate the market, you don’t want to miss this window,” Liu wrote. “Ethereum has been lagging behind Bitcoin this cycle, but that’s about to change. I believe ETH will shine in the next 6 months.” Why Ethereum Could Outperform The Market Despite ETH’s growing adoption, Liu argues that its underperformance relative to Bitcoin stems from “institutional timing.” According to him: “ETH is institutionally driven, unlike Bitcoin or retail-favored altcoins. ETFs provide stability and utility, making ETH ideal for institutional investors.” Liu suggests institutions have been waiting for market conditions to improve and sees 2025 as the year when these conditions finally align. Liu also points to the US Federal Reserve’s policy shifts as a catalyst for ETH’s growth. He notes that since May 2024, the Fed has been slowing its balance sheet reductions, and a possible pivot toward renewed liquidity injections could occur after the January 29 or March 19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. “Since May 2024, the Fed has slowed balance sheet reductions, signaling a pivot. A liquidity boost could follow Jan 29 or Mar 19 FOMC meetings. Why it matters: Fed liquidity pumps historically drive ETH/BTC higher.” He concludes that such a move by the Fed “means ETH outperformance” could be on the horizon. Citing a decade of market data, Liu claims ETH typically outperforms Bitcoin from January to June, while Bitcoin tends to lead from July to December. “From January to June, ETH consistently outperforms Bitcoin. … If you’re holding ETH, now until June is historically the best window for gains.” Liu also highlights potential pro-ETH sentiments from the Trump administration, referencing the former president’s NFT collections and DeFi platform built on Ethereum: “His NFT collections and DeFi platform are built on Ethereum. Trump’s administration plans to replace SEC leadership, revisiting anti-DeFi rulings. Institutional optimism surged after Trump’s election win in Nov 2024, driving ETF inflows.” He concludes that “pro-crypto policies will directly benefit Ethereum-focused DeFi.” Further emphasizing Ethereum’s institutional strength, Liu points to real-world asset (RWA) tokenization initiatives by major firms like BlackRock and prominent DeFi platforms such as AAVE, MakerDAO, and OriginTrail: “Ethereum isn’t leading meme coin or AI trends – it’s powering serious institutional growth.” Liu underscores a notable shift in Ethereum ETF inflows, which turned positive in November 2024 after a period of outflows: “ETFs added $6B in net inflows from Nov to Jan, or 0.76% of ETH supply/month. … Institutions are buying more ETH than BTC monthly, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum as an asset.” Projecting out to 2025, Liu believes ETH could quadruple to $14,000 if Bitcoin doubles to $200,000, citing Ethereum’s historical tendency to outperform Bitcoin by an additional factor of two: “If Bitcoin doubles to $200K, ETH could 4x to $14K, following its historical outperformance (2x on top of BTC). … While diminishing returns may limit upside, ETH remains a high-conviction bet for this cycle.” Summarizing his perspective, Liu stresses that a confluence of factors—from renewed Fed liquidity to potential pro-DeFi policies—creates a near-term window of opportunity for Ethereum: “With ETF inflows rising, the Fed’s potential liquidity injection, Trump’s pro-DeFi stance, and ETH’s seasonal strength, all the catalysts are aligned. … Ethereum’s time to shine is now until June. I’d rather be overexposed than miss this opportunity.” At press time, ETH traded at $106,929.
